Title: Assessment of water resources carrying capacity using uncertainty and sensitivity analyses
Original Title: Procjena nosivog kapaciteta vodnih resursa primjenom analize neodređenosti i osjetljivost
Authors: Marin Kuspilić
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5592/CO/ZT.2017.36
First page: 103 Last page: 109
Publish date: 18.9.2017 Publish date online: 18.9.2017
Abstract: The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is defined as the maximum size of human population that can be sustained by natural environment, given its available water resources. It is most commonly used in sustainability assessment, land planning and water management activities. The data required for the WRCC assessment are usually insufficiently accurate or have stochastic features. The uncertainty analysis takes into account uncertainty of input data in order to determine reliability of an assessment. The sensitivity analysis is able to quantify the effect the uncertainty of input data has on reliability of assessment. An approach based on previously mentioned methods is used in this paper. Based on this approach, the water resources carrying capacity of the island of Cres is calculated, and the effect the parameters used in the assessment have on the calculated result is presented.
Sažetak: Nosivi kapacitet vodnih resursa (NKVR) predstavlja maksimalni broj osoba (stanovnika) koje mogu neograničeno obitavati na nekom području, koristeći pritom dostupne vodne resurse. NKVR svoju primjenu nalazi u aktivnostima procjene održivosti te prilikom radnji vezanih uz prostorno planiranje i gospodarenje vodnim resursima. Podaci potrebni za izradu procjene NKVR često su nedovoljno pouzdani ili stohastičke naravi. Primjenom analize neodređenosti moguće je na temelju spoznaje o neodređenosti ulaznih podataka odrediti nepouzdanost dobivene procjene. Analizom osjetljivosti moguće je kvantificirati utjecaj neodređenosti ulaznih veličina na nepouzdanost dobivene procjene. U ovom radu je, pomoću prethodno navedenih metoda, dana procjena nosivog kapaciteta vodnih resursa otoka Cresa uz prikaz utjecaja parametara korištenih u proračunu na nepouzdanost dobivenog rezultata.